BTC减半在即，插针频繁注意风险
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">原文作者：Mike</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">原文来源：Foresight Research</p>
<h1 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">A. 市场观点</strong></h1>
<h2 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">一、宏观流动性</strong></h2>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">货币流动性改善。美国核心CPI再次高于预期，美联储6月降息概率降至不足50%，互换合约显示24年美联储只会降息50个基点。通胀卷土重来，美债收益率开始反弹。美股周线调整，加密市场跟随美股整体走弱。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/ad956dd15c0c4941b9ba83d69c0865dd~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=Tt4P1dejb1D09CJc7dy5Nnk9gMs%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p26-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/b1c40d9b0ab457268450dd02e06915cc~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=UBeRnaV7%2BIybo12lDf%2FJAeWR8rY%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h2 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">二、全市场行情</strong></h2>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">市值排名前100涨幅榜：</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/91e9c1aa25e03a8d681bdfa50880a2fe~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=p35i4N9lxwFowcx8FVCbiyp69to%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">本周BTC高位震荡，减半临近。市场热点围绕BTC生态和真实收益的Defi协议。当市场大涨时，有想象力的宏大叙事AI、Meme这些板块受到追捧。当市场调整时，有安全收益的再质押、稳定币这些板块反而受到青睐。</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">1. CKB：老牌国产公链，近期发布RGB++的BTC L2协议，上面首个测试币SEAL大涨几百倍。BTC符文生态的Runestone、PUPS也大涨，符文是铭文的升级版，可有效减少BTC网络拥堵，计划4月底推出。2. ENA：是近期增长最快的稳定币协议，提供高达30%的期现套利利率。目前给ENA代币赋能，通过质押ENA可加速挖矿收益。ENA类似矿币拉盘逻辑，以此激励大规模使用。3. TON：公链进入市值前10名，筹码相对集中。生态币Notcoin近期将发币，是点手机免费挖矿，有3000万用户和500万日活。</p>
<h2 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">三、BTC行情</strong></h2>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">1）链上数据</strong></h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">BTC回撤幅度小于往届，风险在逐渐累积。BTC矿工收入处于下降趋势阶段，目前的交易数量虽然仍然很高，但明显低于去年。自历史前高被突破以来，当前市场仅经历了两次10%以上的调整，然而历史上大多数回撤要大得多，其中 25%以上情况很常见。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/0573707c4f720fb51a9dae1cdffcf79d~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=mAOcLmHl%2FMys5kH2%2F5UTk7LImyE%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">、</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">稳定币市值增长1%。美国指责俄罗斯利用稳定币USDT进行活动。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/15a7c8f465d25b432635414b4bb4e77c~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=9y7EOwa6a60pjC0CDOst4y3D044%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据，反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时，是顶部区间；当指标小于2时，是底部区间。MVRV跌破关键水平1，持有者总体上处于亏损状态。当前指标为2.8，进入中间阶段。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/986d5f06c44827298d62d82ed21f3b6e~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=jPpTiYD32hpMsyRS3Cz2ev4lagc%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">机构资金持续两周净流入，但流入速率明显放缓。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/2527c5e47e7449067eef7d92f086d34f~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=uHAp919jwzCkfMveuaMli2%2BijZU%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">2）期货行情</strong></h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">期货资金费率：本周费率恢复正常。费率0.05-0.1%，多头杠杆较多，是市场短期顶部；费率-0.1-0%，空头杠杆较多，是市场短期底部。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/389f5ffe964f6cf6ecea2a983e657c1b~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=YPiRiSqN%2BVGQwjVPzvhQiXFvn7o%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/d9833a38d4f24f25e6610d07111a6e9b~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=n4RXuS6ek1q3DaQhZUMyG8Tr%2FXA%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">期货持仓量：本周BTC持仓量基本持平。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/5cc4f03ebee049b37780e001e2145094~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=IPoDdwpZPkXjSUqjJrB5NO5pCAU%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">期货多空比：1.1，市场情绪正常。散户情绪多为反向指标，0.7以下比较恐慌，2.0以上比较贪婪。多空比数据波动大，参考意义削弱。</p><img src="https://p26-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/d2579e595bb8d638a026ceed70e96d3b~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=knB81U4ZVaX%2FjlnuZcA88Pwoo5s%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3）现货行情</strong></h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">BTC高位震荡，距离减半大概10多天。BTC在减半前创下历史新高，是15年来首次。去年ETH赚取的费用比 SOL高100倍，但现在只赚取4倍的费用。与此同时ETH市值已从 SOL的25倍下降至 5倍。从估值角度来看，随着手续费收入能力的趋同，SOL的市值有更大的空间追赶ETH。而随着SOL也变得日趋拥堵，很多资金也流向新兴的BASE链和TON链。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/afc6796dd7155ffb2120b6eb39a0629c~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=ZxMxJfFsNKXmYbz24ODnNh9qfpQ%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/5ae12e888841efb2cf7401fd04afba9f~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=HwPGjC0ISkQErLI6xYOoeXb8%2B1c%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h1 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">B. 市场数据</strong></h1>
<h2 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">一、公链总锁仓量情况</strong></h2><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/4f05f8e110acb9d531a3e9569ea7113f~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=hlw%2F9UmAtsAkIMW9s%2B6L4v27W%2BQ%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h2 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">二、各公链TVL占比情况</h2><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/f011de97673027c7e138834c1d53778d~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=AFaRQI%2Bl940n%2B%2BCQ%2B5KdO1rvi1c%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">本周总TVL在958亿美金，整体下跌25亿美金，下跌幅度为2.5%。本周主流公链TVL以上涨为主，ETH链上涨7%，TRON链和BSC链均上涨1%，ARB链上涨5%，BTC链上涨7%，过去几个月表现最好的SOLANA链下跌10%。最值得注意的是近期表现火热的BLAST链和BASE链，分别暴涨28%和23%，并且以1.7b和1.5b的总TVL排在第六和第七名。BLAST链的头部项目Thruster过去一个月暴涨521%，还有Hyperlock Finance暴涨12565%。OP链本周下跌2%，在公链TVL排名上已跌出前十。</p>
<h2 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">三、各链协议锁仓量情况</strong></h2>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">1) ETH锁仓量情况</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/2861a1f031f96001ae3aae643376a2a7~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=sGpJ5OJRSgMckfhN25zAkP%2BBrzQ%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/a41ec760ca3b771f30e3bf043090983c~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=8Cif4s5w5OJT9eD36i%2BdcAl64oA%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">2) BSC锁仓量情况</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/0ffbecae4622a4c8a106bb732fb986b9~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=SMFMs3zmFra82LfavtnBSLGntI4%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3) Polygon锁仓量情况</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/ed7b393657c5575c4fbdba3aa7393d2e~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=X7uS%2FAdaiuViOxtY4dO1vnuC8uo%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">4)Arbitrum锁仓量情况</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/7c2a0e7ee894c98a8da802039eec8b27~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=htsCwbx8LijNeFD1ArTC025T%2BSo%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">5) Optimism锁仓量情况</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/bac6a7a8a17423754255c34e5f01c9fb~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=%2BjLxPT%2BOLiVtBBtnj3jhuKu72bw%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">6) Base锁仓量情况</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/dc5ab5507cd96c791828666428b9a5aa~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=ulDSHye74FbQzL%2BezAiXpDNdGhI%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><strong style="color: blue;">7) Solana锁仓量情况</strong></p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/89877aa3fdcf30e232d89cc8e113c539~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=1zjCBXGeeBmmQxfwiQDgj9yL%2BXk%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h2 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">四、NFT市场数据变化</strong></h2>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">1）NFT-500指数</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/101b515f1f1648dec83b73e0b17d75fc~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=P4Vjb2xj0%2Bg9%2FKEpQ2vXkS2BfHI%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">2）NFT市场情况</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/a7c41807a6646b47e37c6d72151dffa7~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=U9Bf3zwcLk6IoNjduKoJBV0ZLf4%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3）NFT交易市场占比</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/5f29058e59294516553d7c7f7457baf6~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=P%2BbN%2Faq43%2FptV%2B5SXptJhSRjvRU%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;">4）NFT买家分析</strong></h3><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/cddd943a95799061eccbd5e8799dbd55~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1713765281&x-signature=n%2FKInyYIsceq6nu8JBTXKUT8%2FCQ%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">本周NFT市场蓝筹项目地板价以上涨为主，大盘依旧在寻找支撑位的状态，本日上涨超过 3%。BAYC和MAYC均上涨6%，Pudgy Penguins上涨4%，Milady上涨20%，Azuki上涨4%，DeGods上涨10%，CryptoPunks下跌4%。NFT市场总交易量方有小幅回升，BAYC以7553个eth的七日交易量重拾榜首的位置。首次购买和复购买家的数量变化不大。NFT市场的低迷情绪还在继续，这轮牛市周期能否带活NFT市场还是个问号。</p>
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